#1: Quantifying the Impact of CBDCs

CBDC Broadcast

4 Jan

11th January 2022

With:

| Dr Carlos León (FNA)

| Dr Kimmo Soramäki (FNA)

In this inaugural session of the CBDC Broadcast, FNA’s own Dr. Kimmo Soramäki (Founder & CEO) and Dr. Carlos León (Director of Advanced Analytics) demonstrate how simulation technology can de-risk the introduction of digital currencies. By building a "Digital Twin" of a nation's payment ecosystem, central banks can move beyond theoretical models to observe how millions of individual "agents"—consumers, merchants, and commercial banks—interact in real-time.

Our guests explain why Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is uniquely suited to capture the non-linear, complex behaviors of financial systems. Through a live demonstration of the FNA CBDC Simulator, developed in partnership with Giesecke+Devrient, we explore how policymakers can stress-test different design options, quantify the risk of bank disintermediation, and identify the specific "incentive triggers" required to drive public adoption.

Key Discussion Points:

The Power of Simulation: Why "learning by simulating" is safer and more cost-effective than the traditional "learning by doing" approach of live pilots.
Agent-Based Modeling (ABM): A deep dive into modeling heterogeneous agents that learn, adapt, and respond to new payment technologies.
Quantifying Impact: Using simulators to measure the potential drain on commercial bank deposits and the impact on fee revenues for card companies.
Design Iteration: How to use the simulator to "test-drive" features like holding limits, interest rates, and offline capabilities before they go live.
Stress Testing: Simulating "bank run" scenarios and other systemic shocks to ensure the CBDC architecture is resilient under pressure

Watch on Demand:

Listen on: Spotify | Apple Podcasts | Amazon Music